How To Avoid the Avalanche of Unfulfilled Holiday Dreams
This might not be the best year to exercise your procrastination tendency when it comes to Holiday buying. The signal in our industry is loud and clear - the challenges affecting freight delivery and product availability have not, and more importantly, will not abate this peak season. However, is that message getting out to the broader public efficiently enough to avoid a looming avalanche of unfilled Holiday dreams? Can we expect stores to be adequately provisioned by Black Friday? It’s hard to imagine all of the things that need to happen to restore some normalcy to the supply chain are going to happen in the next couple of months - but the resiliency and self-preservation of companies banking on a profitable 4th quarter will make this test as interesting as any other the economy has faced in recent years.
This past May I put in an order for a new set of golf clubs, from a major club manufacturer through a major sports equipment retailer. I was told the clubs were on back-order, not at all surprising considering the shortages of all kinds of things in our economy - but four months into the waiting game - and the company still can not predict when my order will be fulfilled. More troubling for holiday shoppers, I learned through this debacle that the retailer does not expect to receive any display sets of clubs for the foreseeable future from this manufacturer. Now, you may be saying “what does this have to do with me?” - but more than likely, you have experienced your own version of supply-chain induced product scarcity.
When the same theme occurs over and over again, it must be the signal and not noise.
Industry evidence of a Tickle-Me-Elmo scenario on steroids this Christmas is stacking up on a record basis like cargo ships off the coast of California. In fact, when you inspect each node of the supply chain it is revealed that the confluence of issues is uniquely complex. It’s not just an equipment shortage in truckload or rail, it's the combination of the equipment deficiency with labor shortages from drivers, to warehouse workers, and longshoremen. A recent article in Freight Waves, called the “storm for freight delivery...near perfect”. It seems no sector of the economy has been untouched in the chaos of the last 2 years. Viewers of 60 Minutes will have recently learned of auto manufacturers having to go production-idle due to a lack of semiconductors - finished cars are sitting in a building just waiting for a microchip to be inserted. It’s problems like these that tell us a global remedy to save the supply chain for the US Holiday season is not forthcoming.
So, what are the Holidays going to look like this year and what can be done?
While no one can predict exactly what is going to happen, I think it’s safe to say that based on the current supply of goods and services, the US will be looking at fewer presents under the tree this year. Do you remember what the aisles of the grocery store looked like during the first few months of the covid pandemic? We’re already seeing the equivalent of that at the big box retailers with a shortage of toys on shelves. No matter what your reason is for making consumer-product purchases, be it Holiday-driven or something else - plan on limited availability, fewer options and delivery delays this year.
The good news is that we still have plenty of time - with 80 days at the time of this writing until Black Friday. The key to avoiding problems due to product scarcity exacerbated by global supply chain challenges is to START NOW!